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It will be another three and a half years before interest rates rise significantly. Alistair Darling and Gordon Brown said so in 2008.
Replying to Billy..
Well cash buyer usually means without a mortgage. But even if we are talking about high deposits plus mortgage, it sill means that more properties are going to people who already have capital, removing the opportunity for first time buyers to start accumulating capital.
My point was really that a crisis is not synonymous with a crash. If the situation continues as is this is going to have significant repercussions on the future wealth of the priced out generations, and therefore on their ability to fund their own future. If lifetime private renting ( as opposed to lifetime social renting) really is the new model for anyone on (let's say) 1.5* average income or less* we need to look at pension planning which includes ongoing private renting...and people aren't saving enough as it is.
* average median London income from a full time worker in 2013 was about £35K, so I'm assuming you need to be on about £50K to consider buying a London property even at the bottom end (studio flats and/or a dodgy area in outer London)
replying to TBD
I think you are reading something I'm not saying. I'm not talking about winners vs losers and I'm certainly not talking about retirement planning being selling your home to fund 2 cheap cruises a year (eh?).
All I mean is that you need a home when you are retired, so if you don't own one by that point you need to make sure your retirement income is enough to cover your rent for the duration of your retirement. Whereas if you do own one, your housing needs are covered either by living in the house you own or buy selling/renting it and using that money to cover accommodation elsewhere.
(To be absolutely crystal clear, you would only sell your house to fund a cruise if you had already covered your housing needs in another way.)
Certainly relying on your house to fund your whole retirement is crazy. However including buying a house as part of your long term planning is not, if you can afford to do so.
My point is that those who cannot afford to do so AND can no longer rely on subsidised social housing will be facing a big gap when they retire, so the true impact of the rising housing costs we currently "enjoy" may not be felt for quite some time.
Totally insane. There is a two bedroom flat on Seymour Road going for £460K. It's a lovely flat, but £460K!!!!
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-44179975.html
That's my point, they weren't saving enough before and now they need to find even more money from that not-big-enough pot.
Seriously, this is not "move along, normal market, nothing to see here" territory. This is the assumptions people have made (often implicitly) when planning their futures being dismantled. It can't NOT have an affect.
What proportion of today's market is made up of first time buyers vs a long term - let's say thirty year - average?
Hi TBD
Absolutely, we will move out of London when or before we retire. I don't think it's a good place to grow old in unless you are very rich - the pace of life in the streets is such that the elderly and infirm are literally jostled aside. So part of our retirement planning is to sell the London house and buy a home back North where I'm from. Probably up a hill to avoid rising sea levels :(
Buy a yacht ;)
Ah, a yacht. Also known as a hole in the water into which money is poured ;)
I don't think my little 2 bed terrace in SoTo is quite up to trading in for a yacht. Maybe a couple of inflatable tubes and a paddle...
That's an interesting thought. I was in Germany when I was 16, mid 80s, and was amazed by how many folks lived in rented accommodation, and often stayed in the same apartments for generational lengths of time.
Perhaps we are moving back towards this model, after all I seem to think it was only really the Thacherite dream that was sold to us about being a home owning population, no?
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