Thanks to Grant for pointing me towards a seam of research about 'Disappearing Traffic'. This research which has been gathering pace since 1994 strongly suggests that when major town centre schemes drastically reduce the capacity of roads to carry traffic, at least 25% of that traffic disappears completely. This is thought to be mainly due to behaviour change.
The authors of a follow-up paper to the original study (copy attached) presented at the Institution of Civil Engineers conclude:
There are reports of short-term ‘traffic chaos’: where congestion was previously bad, it often stays bad; and there can be increasing problems on particular local streets. However, wide- spread, long-term disruption is hardly ever reported.
To date, the research work has only identified two schemes that have been withdrawn.
The survey of professional opinion confirms this experience. Over 90% of respondents knew of a roadspace reallocation scheme which had ‘apparently’ or ‘definitely’ been implemented ‘without causing any significant problems for general traffic’. However, less than a quarter had heard of a scheme that had apparently led to long-term traffic problems, and only 7% were definite that there were such cases.
This morning two people have reported something like this phenomenon in Harringay. A swallow does not a summer make and it's far too early for us to even start pointing to any outcome of the Wightman Road closure, but it's interesting food for thought.
Tags for Forum Posts: traffic, wightman bridge, wightman bridge closure
I posted this on another thread recently but I am repeating it, for it's simplicity
"Some people think traffic is like rainwater and the roads are the drains for it. If you narrow the pipe, they say, it will flood. If you block one road, they say, the same amount of traffic will simply spill over to the nearest easiest routes.
That’s the sort of argument made against our cycle superhighways, or our current proposal to cut rat-running through Regent’s Park by closing some of its gates.
But in real life, once the builders have finished, the spill never actually happens. The pipe doesn’t flood; some of the water goes away instead. Because traffic isn’t a force of nature. It’s a product of human choices. If you make it easier and nicer for people not to drive, more people will choose not to drive. "
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/andrew-gilligan-the-only-...
Hermitage was closed in 2000, the Gardens 2001 (I think). As has been discussed upthread, those closures could well have augmented the subsequent reduction in traffic on GL rather than exacerbated any increase on adjoining roads.
The 2006/7 peak is replicated over a much wider area and is supposedly due to London's favourable economic performance at that time.
It seems to be the case that quite a few areas dropped off after then but not many went up and down quite the same, although some did.
I cycled from Finsbury Park along Tollington into Wightman just after 6 and there was no traffic queue at all. I very, very often pass stationary queues of traffic there.
My tomtom app is telling me that there are still queues on Hornsey High street towards Turnpike Lane- that still seems more stubborn.
Yes it took us 40 minutes from Muswell Hill to GL/Turnpike Lane junction at 4.30ish this afternoon, but the opposite side heading west was moving ok.
Endymion seemed quiet this morning too, at 7.15 and 8.15. The biggest queue I saw was of dismounted cyclists waiting to weave around the barriers on the footbridge.
You must bear in mind Hugh that they have changed the traffic light phasing so that pedestrians are now waiting for ages for the light to go red and the green man to come on. This includes pedestrian crossings on green lanes.
Although this makes sense considering the current works on Wightman Road, I wouldn't want it to remain because 'it made the traffic better'
A friend of a friend was complaining the other day that as she could no longer drive to work from Enfield to Kings Cross because of Wightman Road being closed - she was 'having to' take the train. All well and good, I think.
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