Harringay, Haringey - So Good they Spelt it Twice!

Brexit deal rejected - so what is likely to happen next?

At the time of writing this there are about 10 weeks until the date set for the U.K. exiting the EU and the single plan to do that has been rejected by Parliament in the biggest defeat for a government in the history of the U.K.

The government has taken more than two years to negotiate the failed agreement they put to MPs. They now have until Monday (5 days) bring forward a deal they think will get Parliamentary approval. The likelihood of that happening seems infinitesimally small. That means on 29 March 2019, if there has been no agreement to change or put on hold the date for Brexit, the U.K. will exit the EU with no deal in place.

Those opposed to Brexit and a substantial number of those in favour do not want a no deal Brexit.

The EU do not want the U.K. to leave. Quite apart from the massive blow to trade with EU member states, there is a genuine feeling that a U.K. exit will cause a domino effect in some other EU member states who may move towards leaving. It is not, therefore, in the interests of the EU for the U.K. to leave and they will have no motivation in negotiating a deal that will enable leaving.

So what happens next?

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Permalink Reply by John McMullan on January 16, 2019 at 8:25

There will be a last minute offer from the EU of an extension to article 50. They're now bricking themselves as much as we are. The negotiating strategy (Boris as Foreign Secretary for instance) has in hindsight been amazing. The EU negotiators have been totally caught out over this. Well done parliament.

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Permalink Reply by Hugh on January 16, 2019 at 8:25

I’ve nothing to add beyond what the pundits are able to guess at.

After a year of disbelief and anger and 18 months of reluctant acceptance (along with a never distinguished hope), I’m now absolutely fascinated. We’re living through an amazingly interesting period. It’s riveting. I just wish its consequences weren’t so very serious and that the interesting times were manifest in storm clouds gathered over someone else’s head.

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Permalink Reply by Justin Guest on January 16, 2019 at 10:58

I would rather be a spectator on the side lines than a participant in this nutty roller coaster of a ride Hugh!

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Permalink Reply by Hugh on January 16, 2019 at 11:47

I agree. That’s rather what I was hoping to have communicated. Either way, there’s no denying how utterly fascinating it is.

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Permalink Reply by EyeSpy on January 16, 2019 at 8:30

I predict further insanity. Confidence vote won by Torys, May stepping down follwed by a leadership election.

Will probably end up with Bumbling Boris or Raab leading.

Labour to push for a People's Vote post the confidence vote.

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Permalink Reply by EyeSpy on January 16, 2019 at 11:03

Yep I'm guessing.

Though BoJo's appearances on the interview circuit last night was rather like a dog rushing to smell anothers effluence. I suspect he's still after the top job.