Harringay, Haringey - So Good they Spelt it Twice!
Electoral Calculus Predicts Big Swing to Labour in Harringay
Respected election forecast website Electoral Calculus is predicting big swings to Labour in Harringay's three wards, and indeed across London.
With a strong record in accurate ward by ward voting predictions, the Electoral Calculus website is predicting a sea change in voting patterns in our neighbourhood. Although its focus is national elections, its calculation methodology includes local election results. So, it would be reasonable to assume that the predictions it makes will have significant implications for this Spring's local elections.
Significant swings to Labour are predicted for all Harringay seats at the 2015 General Election:
Voting in Harringay ward in the 2010 local elections was particularly tight with the third (winning) and fourth (losing) placed candidates being separated by just 13 votes. Voting in St Ann's and Seven Sisters wards followed historical precedent and gave all seats comfortably to Labour.
Whilst these predictions suggest a big change in Harringay ward and no change elsewhere in the neighbourhood, predictions do not take into account shifts in demographics. Have the changes in the population of Harringay's three wards been sufficient to confound the predictions of Electoral Calculus?
By way of a side note, if the website's predictions are accurate, we would also see Lynn Featherstone losing Hornsey & Wood Green to Labour Challenger Catherine West.
Link: Electoral Calculus
Replies to This Discussion
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Permalink Reply by Hugh on
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It will be interesting to see how much of an effect that appears to have.
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Permalink Reply by pamish on
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They are giving c. double the vote to all the Other candidates. Who will this be? Is it all Green + UKIP, or some of those slightly worrying churchy Family Values people?
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Permalink Reply by Alison P on
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I'd be interested to know what assumptions underpin these figures. in particular, I don't see the logic behind the prediction that in Harringay only the number of other votes is going to go up so dramatically.
I suspect that the downturn in the fortunes of the local Lib Dems as a result of the coalition will be counter-balanced to some extent by reactions to the outrageous nonsense that the local Labour Party are trying to paper over in St Anns. If I lived in that ward there is no way on earth I would contemplate voting for any of them.
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Permalink Reply by Old-Age-Emporium(OAE) on
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Predicted shift in Harringay vote as against 2010 (and indeed 2006) has nothing to do with how the Ward has been served by its Councillors but everything to do with the Westminster Coalition. Harringay voters can best honour Truth and Fairness (I know, I know! Those strange candidates have nothing to do with Politics) by going out and voting in Karen Alexander, David Schmitz and Asha Kaur. Quixotic perhaps, especially with the reduced turnout of a Local & Euro year, and it won't save us from being screwed by Kober & Ko 'going forward' - some of you may enjoy that of course - but let's postpone the one-party state east of the tracks for another four years.
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Permalink Reply by Alan Stanton on
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OAE - You'll remember Christopher Logue. And possibly his poem; "I shall vote Labour" which was published around 1964/65. Then later printed as a poster before the election which gave an increased majority for Harold Wilson's Government. Of course not many people flocking to the polls as a direct result of Logue's lines realised the poem was ironical.
Anyway, before finally making up your mind in May and leading your followers into the polling booth, do please find time for a chat with Emine Ibrahim who is both a genuine left-winger, and not one of the Muswell Hill colonial regime.
You may disagree with her on many issues. But in my experience, Emine won't pretend to agree - or, going forward, on a journey, and not yet where we want to be - murmur something meaningless and anodyne to get your vote.
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Excuse my crassness, Alan - my belated congratulations & jubilations to Zena and you, though I think it's 'not done' to congratulate the bride. Something to do with us mere males never being a prize to congratulate a woman on.
Seriously, I think you two should stand in St Anns Ward on a platform of Family & Electoral Values. With John McM we've just been shadowing a bunch of Virgin Jehovah's Witnesses as they stood around like headless day-old chicks trying to summon up courage to peck at a few doors in Roseberry Gardens. Their proud and clucking mother kept demonstrating how to knock or ring a doorbell.
Or so it seemed. In fact it turned out to be the Scavenger Wing of St Ann's Labour Party on their first doorstepping exercise. Their clucking mentor David Lammy - for it was He - refused to answer our questions as to his presence alongside the Scavenger Wing. Had we nought else better to do on a Sunday afternoon, he asked. Which is more or less what we wanted to ask him, with one or two supplementaries. David (who writes me a love letter - Dear Friend - every fortnight to fill me in on his exciting life) then suggested we four were harassing him, mentioned the police, and said he wasn't answering "political questions on the street". Hasn't the man heard of the Agora (other than the FOBT kind), the Forum, the Public Square ? What our Hon Member of Parliament meant, of course, was "Stop embarrassing me!" but somehow the word that came out was "harassing".
Strange how an honest man, and astute politician, will cause endless offence one week by absenting himself from a vigil lest he be smeared by incidental contact with a possible small "anarchist" fringe, yet a week or so later is willing / eager / prevailed upon / hoodwinked to present himself as role model and pope imparting his apostolic blessing to a bunch of the scavenging, carpetbagging, landgrabbing tendency, who will stand for the ward in late May through skullduggery of last summer and autumn.
Alan, of course I'll listen to or read what Emine Ibrahim has to say. But tell your wife that I'll still probably vote Liberal Democrat in Harringay because Labour is not being allowed to stand in St Anns and Lib Dems have little chance east of Harringay. As young Lammy's arrogance around 3.00pm this afternoon demonstrates that he doesn't need my vote ever again, I'll certainly vote for David Schmitz if he wishes to stand again in 2015.
My sole Declaration is my genius Name: Eddie Finnegan, Citizen - Harringay Ward
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