Harringay, Haringey - So Good they Spelt it Twice!
Electoral Calculus Predicts Big Swing to Labour in Harringay
Respected election forecast website Electoral Calculus is predicting big swings to Labour in Harringay's three wards, and indeed across London.
With a strong record in accurate ward by ward voting predictions, the Electoral Calculus website is predicting a sea change in voting patterns in our neighbourhood. Although its focus is national elections, its calculation methodology includes local election results. So, it would be reasonable to assume that the predictions it makes will have significant implications for this Spring's local elections.
Significant swings to Labour are predicted for all Harringay seats at the 2015 General Election:
Voting in Harringay ward in the 2010 local elections was particularly tight with the third (winning) and fourth (losing) placed candidates being separated by just 13 votes. Voting in St Ann's and Seven Sisters wards followed historical precedent and gave all seats comfortably to Labour.
Whilst these predictions suggest a big change in Harringay ward and no change elsewhere in the neighbourhood, predictions do not take into account shifts in demographics. Have the changes in the population of Harringay's three wards been sufficient to confound the predictions of Electoral Calculus?
By way of a side note, if the website's predictions are accurate, we would also see Lynn Featherstone losing Hornsey & Wood Green to Labour Challenger Catherine West.
Link: Electoral Calculus
Replies to This Discussion
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Permalink Reply by matt on
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Also don't understand the rational for a predicted surge in 'other' votes for Harringay ward in particular.
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I believe Matt is running again.
If the Green Party put up 1 candidate this time rather than 3 they may have that person voted in. Total 3 Green candidate vote take was about 1400 last local election, up from about 1000 in 2006 (40% increase). Assuming that continued grow in voting numbers for 2014 the Green candidate could attract near 2000 votes, giving a good chance of being selected.
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Permalink Reply by Mark Pack on
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It's because the Electoral Calculus predictions are for general election voting (and the table above is how that general election vote would be case in different wards) and also derived from national voting intention polls. That produces higher figures for - say- UKIP than I think is likely (especially when you hazard a guess as to how many 'other' candidates will stand in the local elections in Haringey).
There's also the factor, if you're thinking specifically about local election results, that some parties tend to do better in local elections than general elections. (E.g. my own party, the Lib Dems, consistently polls higher in the local elections in the May of each year than its standing in the national opinion polls at the time.)
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Permalink Reply by Alan Stanton on
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But they wouldn't be able to predict the impact of the St Ann's factor. Which could well have a knock-on effect on other wards. Or at least on the prospects of those spineless Labour candidates who think Party loyalty excuses vote-rigging.
It's also important to remember that the General and Borough Elections will not be on the same day as last time - which meant that turn-out was significantly higher.
Having said that, I will be delighted to see Catherine West elected next year in Hornsey Wood Green. She is an outstanding candidate.
(Tottenham Hale ward councillor. My wife Zena Brabazon is one of the deselected candidates for St Ann's ward.)
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Permalink Reply by John McMullan on
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Hang on, your wife or your partner? You can't have it both ways.
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John, I can now.
Mind you, it might have been the first time that wedding photos at the Civic Centre included shots of graffiti on the rear walls; of rubbish and litter and dog turds on or near the path to the carpark. Also mud in the waterlogged little garden outside where some couples and their guests take photos.
On the other hand, and very much on the plus side, the Registrars and other staff could not have been more welcoming and professional. (And no, they didn't know in advance we are councillors.)
Zena has written to Cllr Joe Goldberg who is nominally at least, in charge of Council Property. She pointed out how this lets down all the residents of Haringey - especially those who choose their Civic Centre for a wedding. It's shaming; utterly shaming.
I hope Joe Goldberg will not only accept some personal responsibility but finally learn several key lessons that he and Claire Kober have never grasped. The most important, that our Borough needs real Council Leadership from new people who, crucially, understand how to fight on the side of local residents; and are not just ambitious nonentities climbing the greasy pole of Labour politics.
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Permalink Reply by Hugh on
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Well, congratulations to the pair of you!
It's a shame about the Civic Centre generally. I think it's a woefully underloved building which has a lot more going for it that its custodians recognise.
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Thanks to everyone for their congratulations. I have now posted some of the wedding photos on Flickr.
As if today, 27 January 2014, Cllr Joe Goldberg had not replied to Zena's email about the state of the rear of the Civic Centre. But she happened to see Nick Walkley, the Chief Executive, who assured her that he is taking action.
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