Harringay, Haringey - So Good they Spelt it Twice!
Current Swine flu "outbreak" in Haringey
Lots of stuff in the media about the current swine flu(H1N1) outbreak.
Guardian data blog published UK Gov figures yesterday which shows the rate of infections recorded in GPs' surgeries across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. If you look at their www page you can see that the current “action” is not in London, but below is a screen grab of the London breakdown
I took the data set and plotted Haringey and the surrounding 6 surrounding PCTsagainst time, and got this.
The peak on the left is the outbreak 2009 (official peak 13 July 2009). Then it falls quickly and there is a slow rise from beginning of Sept to I guess to winter.The gap in the data on the right is December 2010 so a year later (thanks John for pointing this out!). Obviously this falls into the “I’ll think you’ll find it’s a bit more complicated than that” pile, but the apparent fall at the end of December must be just due to people not going to the doctors over Christmas?
But ignoring the end December “fall” I draw a couple of conclusions.
1) Haringey had almost lowest with a rate of report less than 1/3 Islington (58.8 compared 168.1 per 100,000)
2) If you go back the original Guardian plot they plot the data that has the clear drop over Christmas. If they went one week back and ignore Christmas Islington would be in the red on the top plot – although Haringey would still be just yellow.
3) The current peak in the UK (Monmouthshire) did not have a drop in reports over Christmas like London. And there is a lot of missing data in South Wales, so I guess it really is more serious there....
Things you look at when you have insomnia eh?
Replies to This Discussion
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Permalink Reply by John D on
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Given that most, if not all, GP Surgeries are closed over Christmas, the Dec 27 drop is not really surprising ?
Your graphs are for 2009, not 2010 ?
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Permalink Reply by Mark B on
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For us I think your are right John, but not in places like Monmouthshire. Here is their data:
6 Dec - 16 per 100,000
13 Dec - 48 per 100,000
20 Dec - 150.4 per 100,000
27 Dec - 207.9 per 100,000
the data shows similar for other highs eg Conwy, Cumbria, Cornwall and Scily ect.
I am sure a proper epidemiologist would explain this.
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OK dont try to do things "early" in the morning. You were right of course John. The 2009 data runs from July -> Nov 2009. Then the guardian pasted 2010 December on the end. Axis corrected, original plot changed. The peer review process works!
My 3 conclusions all relate to dec 2010, so they hold.
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Permalink Reply by tigha on
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as you say the press are being more than a bit naughty by raising everyones anxiety to all most panic mode so at work in my gp practice our phone lines are blocked with phone calls and clinics full of flu people who should be at home instead of passing all their germs onto others
we have flu every year and yes people do die as a result but Im sick of it and wish the media would leave it alone so us health professionals csn just get on with our jobs
sorry rant over
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