Change in London's Mayoral electoral system threatens unpredictability in 2024

In today's Observer:

Sadiq Khan has warned progressive voters that they risk handing the London mayoralty to an "increasingly rightwing" Tory party unless they back Labour, amid concern in his camp that most Londoners are unaware of a complete overhaul of the voting system.

The battle for control of City Hall next May will be the first mayoral contest to switch to the first past the post system. It comes after a legal change last year that appears to be largely unknown among the capital's voters. The previous system allowed voters to pick their second preference.

Only 30% of Londoners are aware of the change, according to a new Opinium poll. It has led to concern in Khan's team that, despite his large poll lead, Liberal Democrat and Green voters will be unaware they can no longer back him as their second preference, as many have done in the past.

It also means that a strong challenge from the left could also cut Khan's support. There have been rumours that Jeremy Corbyn could stand. The former Labour leader said in the summer he will "have a think" about the prospect.

Needless to say, I wasn't one of the 30% and was glad to be put in the know.

The Institute for Government isn't impressed with the change:

The scrapping of supplementary vote in favour of first past the post, brought in with the Electoral Reform Act 2022, risks reducing voter choice and ultimately may damage the position of mayor.....

Last year, the Elections Act 20221 – more noted for its controversial voter ID requirement and attempts to rein in the independence of the Electoral Commission – replaced SV with first past the post (FPTP). The government dropped this change into the bill late in the day, with opposition from Labour muted at best, with the opposition preferring to concentrate their parliamentary fire on the introduction of voter ID.

.....FPTP suits the major parties. Supplementary vote meant that voters could take a chance on an outside candidate without worrying that their vote would be ‘wasted’ – this was because they could allocate their second vote to the candidate they preferred (or disliked less) of the parties most likely to get through to the second round, in which the ‘top two’ of the first round go head to head.