Harringay, Haringey - So Good they Spelt it Twice!
Current Haringey Covid 19 Levels Low by English Standards - Council Publishes Outbreak Plan
Hi,
I thought I would start a new discussion on Haringey's Covid19 levels, as an old one started with incorrect info & this week - finally - the Government published all its test data in one place.
The problem has been that the Government has been publishing location information for 'Pillar 1' data (from hospital tests) but not for 'Pillar 2' data from drive in centres & post-out tests. This was finally resolved at the end of last week...
The Guardian produced a nice graphic of the combined data this week, which confirmed that none of the London boroughs is in the 50 worst hits areas of England.
Sky then put up a page were you can find figures for individual councils. The week before last Haringey had 2.59 positive tests per 100,000 people (which presumably means 7 positive tests in a Haringey population of 270,000). This makes Haringey number 111 in the English league table.
You can now download a database of local test results on the Government's 'dashboard', but they haven't yet created an easy way to access this data on a borough level.
This doesn't mean the problem has gone away - but in another positive step, Haringey has now published its 'Local Outbreak Management Plan', outlining what it will do if there is an outbreak in the borough.
Keep safe - and avoid superspreading situations where possible, as this is where there is the highest risk of catching the virus.
Tags for Forum Posts: coronavirus
Replies to This Discussion
-
Permalink Reply by michaelw on
-
FYI, the Government has finally managed to publish regional & local data on its 'Dashboard' site.
Here's data from Haringey, going back to the start of the pandemic; note that the figures for the first few months will be big underestimates as so few people were being tested:
https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&are...
Here's the graph for Haringey:
London data is here:
https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=region&a...
- there have been fewer than 50 positive tests per day in London for the past week, maybe even less than 10 in the last few days, though this data may get revised.
-
-
The overall death figure for Haringey given in the dashboard above is 186. This BBC page which updates every day (although death figures only update weekly) gives a figure of 256. Perhaps the difference is deaths with a positive coronavirus test vs. deaths with coronavirus mentioned in the death certificate? This is just a guess?
-
-
There is a site that is using the detailed stats to estimate R for each area:
https://r.winter.cx/region/haringey
Looks like we had R>1 in late June, got it below 1 at the start of July, and now it's back above 1.5
-
-
R doesn't work well at low levels of infection, as it can bounce around a lot, see this in Nature:
"R is an imprecise estimate that rests on assumptions, says Jeremy Rossman, a virologist at the University of Kent, UK. It doesn’t capture the current status of an epidemic and can spike up and down when case numbers are low. It is also an average for a population and therefore can hide local variation. Too much attention to it could obscure the importance of other measures, such as trends in numbers of new infections, deaths and hospital admissions, and cohort surveys to see how many people in a population currently have the disease, or have already had it."
The daily number of positive tests in Haringey is here, which shows between 0 and 3 positive tests per day - I think the most recent day or two may not be accurate due to delays in data coming in.
The whole of London is currently recording around 30-40 positive tests per day, but it is moving up and down quite a bit (and again the most recent day or two are probably wrong).
© 2024 Created by Hugh.
Powered by
