Harringay, Haringey - So Good they Spelt it Twice!
St Ann's: Labour share of vote rises despite selection fraud issues
I charted up the ward-level results for St Ann's, because I was curious what impact the selection issue had on the vote.
Answer: quite possibly none. Labour's share of vote actually increased from 51.5% (2010) to 56.0% in 2014.
I suspect very few people locally actually heard of the scandal - perhaps only members of this forum? Perhaps we should have leafleted/doorstepped to make the matter more widely known, and allow local residents to make an informed choice.
Also posted on my Tumblr with a bit more discussion of other party swings. But thought you guys here would be interested too.
Methodology: The 2010 elections saw 52.0% turnout as it was a national election year, whereas this year’s turnout for local & EU elections was just 32.5%. To make this directly comparable, I weighted each candidate by the share of overall vote they gained (2014: 8,619, 2010: 13,630), and ranked them simply as 1, 2 and 3 within the party - so it's not looking at who the individual candidates were here, just the party patterns.
Replies to This Discussion
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Permalink Reply by Hugh on
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Good visual, Jay. I'd be interested to see the same for Harringay and Seven Sisters wards and then all three combined (but then I would be; I don't have to do the leg work!)
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Permalink Reply by Jay Owens on
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Seeing as I've got the formatting all set up in PPT, let's take a look at Harringay for comparison.
Key differences to St Ann's:
- Bigger swing to the Greens in St Ann's (11.7% of the total vote, vs. 6.6%)
- Lib Dems held on better in Harringay (fell 10.3% vs. 17%), starting as they did with a much stronger base including 2 sitting councillors
Labour share of vote rose by a pretty similar amount though, helping confirm the hypothesis that Labour's results in St Ann's weren't notably impacted by the selection issue.
Anything else afraid you gotta calculate yourself!
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Permalink Reply by John McMullan on
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I think you have the share of total vote columns around the wrong way. Well I hope you do.
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I discussed leafletting with the other guy who got the harassment notice but when half the discussion was about how we avoid jail I sort of lost interest.
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No criticism intended John, sorry if you felt any was implied. I meant "we" as in I feel guilty for not having done something myself (though I'm new to the area and wasn't in London from March until mid May, so a bit difficult to be of much use).
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Permalink Reply by 1rk254kmc0kqw on
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Interesting but this was not just the case in St Ann's. It was a problem Haringey wide. Do remember that the Lib Dem campaign in St Ann's was not that prominent, if it had been perhaps things would have been closer in voting numbers but the local Lib Dems are a smaller party so if they had put more campaigning into St Ann's, the Labour swing in Harringay may have been even worse.
We now have a council full of Labour which means we really have to fear for the future of Haringey since we have 48 Labour vs 9 Lib Dems. And in Harringay we have lost a potential seat for a young prospective councillor with a lot of potential which Haringey will have to miss out on and we have lost 2 extremely dedicated, passionate and hardworking councillors in Harringay too.
My poll even says so (look at the number of votes for Karen Alexander and David Schmitz): http://www.misterpoll.com/polls/592049/results
So Haringey have recognised their fantastic work, but where were you all on polling day?
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I think you're speaking to people who are not on HoL.
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Yes I suppose so. I also thought that Lydia would have received more votes too. If the Labour voters really wanted a left wing party they should have voted Green or TUSC shouldn't they?
But since Labour are constantly in your face I suppose that really helped them.
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Labour is a very powerful brand. In times of trouble voters go for safe havens and the TUSC does not have the gravitas that Labour does. There are fashionistas who can tell you all the reasons why a particular garment is better than another but most of us just go for brand. It's the same thing with politics.
The funny thing is that if a citizen notices that a particular brand in footwear is not living up to ethical assertions about how it treats the people who make its shoes and starts up a campaign to alert people to this they don't involve the police in shutting it down.
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Permalink Reply by Simon Hester on
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I think it goes beyond a question of 'branding'. It is fashionable on the left to write off Labour as just another establishment party but, if nothing else, the local election results show that Labour is still seen by most as the only realistic opposition to the government. And if you look at the votes in detail it was the working class areas that voted heavily for Labour. It beggars belief that anyone can suggest that the Fib Dems are an effective 'opposition' party when they are part of a very nasty right wing government. We were pleased with some of the TUSC votes in Tottenham which represents a solid minority prepared to vote for a small party against austerity - and congratulations to the Greens who did very well. The Local Government Association is predicting even more harsh cuts over the next 12-18 months which will put pressure on the new Labour councillors. Will they meekly implement the government instructions (as they have been doing for the past four years) or will they attempt to resist? I hope for the latter approach, but expect the former. Those of us who have always opposed the cuts will have to be prepared to petition, campaign and protest if the LGA is correct.
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